Trump's Commonsense Revolution

How can people persist in thinking he is dumb or unsophisticated?

Listeners of the Three Whiskey Happy Hour podcast will know that as “Lucretia,” I pretend no expertise in any of the theories that dominate the fields of international relations or foreign affairs. However, I am right more often than not when I make predictions based on what is, in my opinion, a commonsense view of the world. I argued just this past week that President Donald Trump’s conduct of foreign affairs in the Middle East, and especially his handling of the Israel/Iran conflict, has made him the “smartest man in the room,” at least as compared to the elite foreign policy establishment. Of course, my co-hosts scoffed, but events over the new few days have proven I was right. Trump has achieved notable successes in the Middle East, reshaping U.S. foreign policy in the region and defying the conventional wisdom of the elite foreign relations community.

In which ‘Lucretia’ takes on her co-hosts’ conventional thinking. . .

Trump’s second term has yielded tangible results in the Middle East, particularly through his May 2025 trip to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which marked a significant departure from traditional U.S. diplomatic itineraries by excluding Israel. This visit secured $2 trillion in investment deals across sectors like aviation, defense, technology, and artificial intelligence, including a $200 billion UAE deal to build the largest U.S. data center abroad and a $142 billion Saudi arms agreement. These economic partnerships align with Gulf states’ ambitions to diversify their economies, fostering regional stability through commercial integration rather than military dominance.

Diplomatically, Trump’s administration played a pivotal role in securing a ceasefire and hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas in January 2025, with his envoy Steve Witkoff applying pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to finalize the deal. Additionally, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, negotiated in November 2024, has largely held, reducing hostilities in the region. Trump’s lifting of sanctions on Syria, a move long considered politically untouchable in Washington, signals a willingness to engage with post-Assad dynamics, potentially fostering economic reconstruction and countering Iranian, Chinese, and Russian influence.

President Trump’s decision to authorize the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan on June 21, 2025, codenamed Operation Midnight Hammer, represents a masterstroke of strategic misdirection and decisive action, leveraging deceptive public signaling to achieve a significant geopolitical victory. By publicly projecting indecision—such as claiming he would decide on military action within “two weeks” and appearing to distance himself from Israel’s aggressive posture—Trump lulled Iran into a false sense of security, enabling a surprise attack that maximized impact. This calculated deception, including the use of decoy B-2 bombers sent west over the Pacific to mislead Iranian defenses, allowed seven B-2 Spirit stealth bombers to deliver 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators and over 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles with pinpoint accuracy, severely damaging Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Trump’s claim that the facilities were “completely and totally obliterated” aligns with U.S. military assessments of “severe damage,” particularly at Fordow, where satellite imagery shows significant surface disruption. This bold move not only set back Iran’s nuclear ambitions—potentially by years, given the destruction of critical centrifuge arrays—but also reinforced U.S. commitment to Israel’s security, despite earlier feints suggesting a strained alliance. By outmaneuvering Iran’s expectations and coordinating closely with Israel, Trump’s actions showcased a “peace through strength” doctrine, neutralizing a major threat from the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism while maintaining diplomatic leverage for future negotiations.

By focusing on these pragmatic outcomes—economic prosperity, reduced conflict, and strategic leverage—Trump has disrupted decades of U.S. Middle East policy, which often prioritized ideological goals like democracy promotion or regime change.

Traditional international relations theories—liberal institutionalism, neoconservatism, and realism—have long shaped U.S. Middle East policy, often with disappointing results. Liberal institutionalism, which emphasizes multilateral cooperation and international organizations, underpinned efforts like the Oslo Accords and the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), but these initiatives faltered amid regional distrust and domestic opposition. Neoconservatism, dominant during the George W. Bush era, advocated military intervention and nation-building, leading to costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that empowered Iran and destabilized the region. Realism, with its focus on state power and balance-of-threat, guided Cold War-era policies but struggled to address non-state actors like Hamas or Hezbollah and the complex interplay of economic and ideological motivations in the modern Middle East.

Trump’s approach rejects these frameworks. He eschews multilateral institutions, as seen in his first-term withdrawal from the JCPOA and UNESCO, and his second-term skepticism toward UNRWA. Instead of neoconservative nation-building, he prioritizes “peace through strength,” avoiding regime-change wars while maintaining military leverage, such as deploying a second carrier task force to the region. Unlike realists, who might focus solely on countering Iran or bolstering Israel, Trump pursues opportunistic deals with both allies and adversaries, viewing economic incentives as a stabilizing force. His speech in Saudi Arabia in May 2025 explicitly criticized neoconservatives and liberal internationalists for “neocolonial projects” that drained U.S. resources, advocating instead for a U.S. role rooted in “active diplomacy” and economic partnerships.

The U.S. foreign policy establishment, comprising think tanks, academics, and career diplomats, has long favored predictable, institution-driven strategies. Trump’s unorthodox style—characterized by unpredictability, personal diplomacy, and a disregard for diplomatic niceties—challenges this consensus. The elite community’s skepticism is evident in critiques from outlets like Foreign Affairs, horrified at Trump’s audacious and foolhardy rejection of their wisdom and expertise. Not being a card-carrying member of that elite community, I appreciate that his outsider perspective, unburdened by decades of failed policies, allows him to seize opportunities others overlook. For instance, his ability to leverage Gulf states’ economic ambitions aligns with their desire for regional integration, creating incentives for stability that traditional diplomacy missed. Trump’s focus on business deals in May 2025 laid the groundwork for isolating Iran diplomatically before engaging it directly, a move that required a flexibility absent in establishment thinking.

President Trump’s Middle East successes in 2025—securing massive investment deals, brokering ceasefires, and opening nuclear talks with Iran—demonstrate the efficacy of his unconventional approach. By rejecting the stale and inherently limiting theories of liberal institutionalism, neoconservatism, paleo-conservatism, and realism, and defying the elite foreign relations community’s preference for predictability, Trump has exploited opportunities that align with the region’s economic and strategic realities. His focus on bilateral deals and personal diplomacy has strengthened U.S. influence in the Gulf while navigating complex dynamics with Iran and Israel.

In other words, my assertion that President Trump’s handling of the Middle East, particularly his cunning approach to the Israel-Iran conflict, made him the smartest man in the room compared to the elite foreign policy establishment turned out to be rather prophetic. At least so far, the events of June 21, 2025, with Operation Midnight Hammer’s devastating strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, have thus far proven me right. Trump’s masterful use of deception—feigning indecision, hinting at a weakened U.S.-Israel alliance, and dangling a two-week timeline—outfoxed Iran, paving the way for a surgical blow that crippled their nuclear ambitions while preserving diplomatic leverage. Add to that his $2 trillion in Gulf investment deals, ceasefires with Hamas and Hezbollah, and bold outreach to Syria, and it is clear Trump’s pragmatic, deal-driven approach has reshaped the Middle East in ways the tired playbooks of the establishment never could. While the ivory tower crowd at Foreign Affairs clutches their pearls, I see a once-in-a-generation leader who is unafraid of ignoring their dogma, seizing opportunities, and delivering results that will strengthen America and its allies. My co-hosts might owe me a whiskey for this one.