I can say from experience that 3D chess is a lot harder to play even than mere 2D chess, which is already near impossible to be any good at.
Meanwhile, a lot of good things are happening with Trump as President. And tomorrow he'll make some brand new move which will likewise outrage those who hate him and the rest of us. Be not distraught.
I really do wish that Mr Kruetzer and other economists would explain how goosing the market with unsustainable "government spending" is preferable to fixing a broken system that continues to enrich a reprehensible, communist regime and impoverish the bottom 75% of the US population. Does Mr Kruetzer really believe that the sugar-high stock market was not overdue for a truly major correction? Is he comfortable with $36 trillion in debt?
Very true. I had read that Dems were privately gleeful that the correction would most likely take place in DJT's second term. Even those miscreants realize that the market was artificially goosed.
Since the start of the tariff tantrum, I’ve been saying that it is a short-term play. No doubt he’s talked about reshoring over the years, but that is a longterm play that goes well past his presidency to achieve, well beyond his ability to control, and he knows that. So, I’ll repeat: Look for short-term goals and explanations. The explanation here fits for its short-term tactical nature.
And remember this: uncertainty can be a goal in itself. In two interviews during his first term, he stated his belief that Xi would cut semiconductor exports if China took Taiwan by force and he stated his desire to introduce a small measure of uncertainty in the minds of Putin and Xi regarding how he might react to their actions.
China has invested ~1T yuan ($?) in building their navy which isn’t being used to safeguard international waterways. It’s been said that China plans to unify with Taiwan by 2027. The PLA Navy has been very aggressive throughout the region in recent months before the tariff tantrum. But since the tariff tantrum began, do you think Beijing, Moscow and Tehran are more or less certain about what Trump might do in response to future acts and provocations?
Richard Nixon and the “madman theory” from Grok: “He believed that making adversaries think he was unpredictable and capable of extreme actions, like nuclear escalation, would pressure them into concessions, particularly during the Vietnam War. This approach aimed to create fear of irrational behavior to gain diplomatic leverage.” Specific application: “Operation Linebacker II” or the Christmas bombings of Hanoi and N.Vietnamese cities in December 1972 widely credited with resulting in Hanoi seeking ceasefire talks.
Nixon’s only contribution here is the colorful descriptor. There’s nothing new in the history of diplomacy, warfare, and fighting generally, in noting the efficacy of causing your opponent to hesitate.
As for Trump, who knows? Lots of people have been saying all manner of dire things about him since his 2016 run. Trump did off Soleimani in a spectacularly egregious manner after Soleimani got a bit uppity. I don’t think that’s been forgotten. He also picked Dan (Raisin’) Caine to annihilate ISIS and wreck a goodly portion of Mosul in the process over 9 months when many others said it couldn’t be done. Caine is now his Joint Chiefs Chair. So, after the tariff tantrum, I wonder what the view of all this is in Beijing, Moscow and Tehran.
As a lifetime free trader, I knew Clinton broke the system twenty years ago when he brought communists into the WTO. I agree that protection is bad, and that all taxes should be low, but there is no voluntary exchange of private property with communists.
I am not an economist -vide: one of my "fun " memories is of being yelled at by a keynesian econ prof for arguing that government expenditure is NOT part of GDP because any dollar spent by government comes from current or defered taxation -i.e. counting gov exp dollars as part of GDP counts them twice.
That said, it seems to me that the idea of reciprocal tariffs is pretty great: if Europe wants to add 50% to the price of a Ford delivered to a dealer (25% via tariffs, the rest via regulation) and then add another 20% in various consumer taxes, well we should do that to BMW et al. in the US until they change their behavior.
Similarly, if Grizzly tools can't buy a machine in Taiwan, bring it into the US and then sell into Canada without spending a million a year on Cdn regulatory compliance, then maybe Canada shouldn't be allowed to import Chinese parts and then sell them into the US power tools industry either - again, until their behavior changes
And that is, I think, both the main and the end point for "Trump's Tariffs." Lots of oxen are getting gored, but in the end if both sides remove their barriers to trade, trade becomes both free and fair - meaning everybody wins except the griffters who have been gaming the system for their own benefit.
Good grief! You guys are just as far behind President Trump as the PowerLine Blog boys are, despite putting a terrific article by Paul Macdougald in their Picks:
"What You Need to Know About Trump’s Tariffs: It's All about China, Stupid,"
It IS n-dimensional chess. Mr Trump's gambit, an all-holds-barred onslaught of wild tariffing had exactly the intended effect: First he let loose with tariffs for everyone, then he waited a day. He got 75 phone calls from panicked countries, all wanting to talk. Then he slapped big tariffs on China, and said to the rest, "Come on, we'll talk."
What's the first thing he'll them all? "We'll give you modest tariffs, but no trans-shipment of Chinese goods! Those will get tariffed up the ol' wazoo, and so will you. So shape up, and we'll all build a New Free World, led by the United States of China-Free America!"
China will be in a box, we'll be getting good money from reciprocal tariffs on most countries, and the re-industrialization of America will proceed apace.
Free trade as we have been conducting it for 30 years is a suicide pact. Trump thinks trade should be treated as a strategic matter and means to see US benefit from "free" markets. We are dying, I'm not convinced the patient can be saved but I am hopeful.
If teriffs are so obviously bad How come it is okay for everyone else to have them? I Simply do not believe that it is possible that every other country and the planet is stupid and somehow we are only smart ones until we have terrors.
This is beginning to be boring. I haven't yet seen one economist take a position on the diplomatic effect of threats of tariffs that aren't enacted, nor one who would offer an alternative given the diplomatic and trade problem statements that this effort seems to be trying to address. Instead, we get complaints, shaped by MSM propaganda, about vague conflicts with economic theory compounded with mind reading. No one seems to notice the end of OPEC as an effective cartel, sub $60 oil, diplomatic initiatives, or the positive responses of willing trade partners, however coerced they might be. Few if any take a position on military and law enforcement cooperation with Mexico. Very few of these knowledgeable and suddenly vociferous sages seem aware that all these moves were described and predicted in videos by Trump a year ago.
And it still isn't a board game. Using the chess metaphor should be an immediate disqualifier henceforth.
I just can't understand how anyone can think we have free trade when it is only free in one direction and very expensive in the other. How does one get another country to give up their tariffs? Trump would probably say, "You make them pay."
The author is former heritage specialist. After 40 years of promoting free trade, heritage capitulated to make America poor again & support Trump’s tariffs. Podhoretz slammed on X the heritage president. John’s mom was on heritage board for many years.
Btw - I wonder how many of the make America poor again tariff junkies make it a habit of buying made in America when they can? Of course most available items are available only from overseas vendors. Even many items made here have components made overseas. I bet the answer is near zero.
You are principled. Most folks do not buy America & have much more variety in lower price, value and aesthetics. You buy only from American cartel & just like Americans have to buy from oil cartel.
Sadly Trump will lead to mid term shellacking & worse odds come 2028. Save for his border policies & rejection of DEI (things I applaud) trump’s policies are shadows of left.
Why do people think Nostradamus of Mapa (Trump, make America poor again) has special gnostic insight? Nostradamus of mapa just handed out big tariff exemptions to big tech around time he unleashes tariffs on our allies. Allies perceive capitulation as sign of weakness on Trump’s part. This weakens our negotiation position. Art of deal for ignoramuses. Btw - weaker dollar likely will increase interest rates, inflation.
I can say from experience that 3D chess is a lot harder to play even than mere 2D chess, which is already near impossible to be any good at.
Meanwhile, a lot of good things are happening with Trump as President. And tomorrow he'll make some brand new move which will likewise outrage those who hate him and the rest of us. Be not distraught.
I really do wish that Mr Kruetzer and other economists would explain how goosing the market with unsustainable "government spending" is preferable to fixing a broken system that continues to enrich a reprehensible, communist regime and impoverish the bottom 75% of the US population. Does Mr Kruetzer really believe that the sugar-high stock market was not overdue for a truly major correction? Is he comfortable with $36 trillion in debt?
In fact, P/E ratios were way out of whack.
A correction was long expected.
Very true. I had read that Dems were privately gleeful that the correction would most likely take place in DJT's second term. Even those miscreants realize that the market was artificially goosed.
Since the start of the tariff tantrum, I’ve been saying that it is a short-term play. No doubt he’s talked about reshoring over the years, but that is a longterm play that goes well past his presidency to achieve, well beyond his ability to control, and he knows that. So, I’ll repeat: Look for short-term goals and explanations. The explanation here fits for its short-term tactical nature.
And remember this: uncertainty can be a goal in itself. In two interviews during his first term, he stated his belief that Xi would cut semiconductor exports if China took Taiwan by force and he stated his desire to introduce a small measure of uncertainty in the minds of Putin and Xi regarding how he might react to their actions.
China has invested ~1T yuan ($?) in building their navy which isn’t being used to safeguard international waterways. It’s been said that China plans to unify with Taiwan by 2027. The PLA Navy has been very aggressive throughout the region in recent months before the tariff tantrum. But since the tariff tantrum began, do you think Beijing, Moscow and Tehran are more or less certain about what Trump might do in response to future acts and provocations?
Are you suggesting that being thought to be crazy can be an asset?
Richard Nixon and the “madman theory” from Grok: “He believed that making adversaries think he was unpredictable and capable of extreme actions, like nuclear escalation, would pressure them into concessions, particularly during the Vietnam War. This approach aimed to create fear of irrational behavior to gain diplomatic leverage.” Specific application: “Operation Linebacker II” or the Christmas bombings of Hanoi and N.Vietnamese cities in December 1972 widely credited with resulting in Hanoi seeking ceasefire talks.
Nixon’s only contribution here is the colorful descriptor. There’s nothing new in the history of diplomacy, warfare, and fighting generally, in noting the efficacy of causing your opponent to hesitate.
As for Trump, who knows? Lots of people have been saying all manner of dire things about him since his 2016 run. Trump did off Soleimani in a spectacularly egregious manner after Soleimani got a bit uppity. I don’t think that’s been forgotten. He also picked Dan (Raisin’) Caine to annihilate ISIS and wreck a goodly portion of Mosul in the process over 9 months when many others said it couldn’t be done. Caine is now his Joint Chiefs Chair. So, after the tariff tantrum, I wonder what the view of all this is in Beijing, Moscow and Tehran.
As a lifetime free trader, I knew Clinton broke the system twenty years ago when he brought communists into the WTO. I agree that protection is bad, and that all taxes should be low, but there is no voluntary exchange of private property with communists.
I am not an economist -vide: one of my "fun " memories is of being yelled at by a keynesian econ prof for arguing that government expenditure is NOT part of GDP because any dollar spent by government comes from current or defered taxation -i.e. counting gov exp dollars as part of GDP counts them twice.
That said, it seems to me that the idea of reciprocal tariffs is pretty great: if Europe wants to add 50% to the price of a Ford delivered to a dealer (25% via tariffs, the rest via regulation) and then add another 20% in various consumer taxes, well we should do that to BMW et al. in the US until they change their behavior.
Similarly, if Grizzly tools can't buy a machine in Taiwan, bring it into the US and then sell into Canada without spending a million a year on Cdn regulatory compliance, then maybe Canada shouldn't be allowed to import Chinese parts and then sell them into the US power tools industry either - again, until their behavior changes
And that is, I think, both the main and the end point for "Trump's Tariffs." Lots of oxen are getting gored, but in the end if both sides remove their barriers to trade, trade becomes both free and fair - meaning everybody wins except the griffters who have been gaming the system for their own benefit.
Weak sauce. This is neither informative, nor amusing. Trust the experts?!?! Hes got a PHD!
Good grief! You guys are just as far behind President Trump as the PowerLine Blog boys are, despite putting a terrific article by Paul Macdougald in their Picks:
"What You Need to Know About Trump’s Tariffs: It's All about China, Stupid,"
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/what-you-need-to-know-about-trumps-tariffs
It IS n-dimensional chess. Mr Trump's gambit, an all-holds-barred onslaught of wild tariffing had exactly the intended effect: First he let loose with tariffs for everyone, then he waited a day. He got 75 phone calls from panicked countries, all wanting to talk. Then he slapped big tariffs on China, and said to the rest, "Come on, we'll talk."
What's the first thing he'll them all? "We'll give you modest tariffs, but no trans-shipment of Chinese goods! Those will get tariffed up the ol' wazoo, and so will you. So shape up, and we'll all build a New Free World, led by the United States of China-Free America!"
China will be in a box, we'll be getting good money from reciprocal tariffs on most countries, and the re-industrialization of America will proceed apace.
Free trade as we have been conducting it for 30 years is a suicide pact. Trump thinks trade should be treated as a strategic matter and means to see US benefit from "free" markets. We are dying, I'm not convinced the patient can be saved but I am hopeful.
If teriffs are so obviously bad How come it is okay for everyone else to have them? I Simply do not believe that it is possible that every other country and the planet is stupid and somehow we are only smart ones until we have terrors.
This is beginning to be boring. I haven't yet seen one economist take a position on the diplomatic effect of threats of tariffs that aren't enacted, nor one who would offer an alternative given the diplomatic and trade problem statements that this effort seems to be trying to address. Instead, we get complaints, shaped by MSM propaganda, about vague conflicts with economic theory compounded with mind reading. No one seems to notice the end of OPEC as an effective cartel, sub $60 oil, diplomatic initiatives, or the positive responses of willing trade partners, however coerced they might be. Few if any take a position on military and law enforcement cooperation with Mexico. Very few of these knowledgeable and suddenly vociferous sages seem aware that all these moves were described and predicted in videos by Trump a year ago.
And it still isn't a board game. Using the chess metaphor should be an immediate disqualifier henceforth.
I just can't understand how anyone can think we have free trade when it is only free in one direction and very expensive in the other. How does one get another country to give up their tariffs? Trump would probably say, "You make them pay."
I hope he’s right.
The author is former heritage specialist. After 40 years of promoting free trade, heritage capitulated to make America poor again & support Trump’s tariffs. Podhoretz slammed on X the heritage president. John’s mom was on heritage board for many years.
Btw - I wonder how many of the make America poor again tariff junkies make it a habit of buying made in America when they can? Of course most available items are available only from overseas vendors. Even many items made here have components made overseas. I bet the answer is near zero.
I purchase nothing that is made in China. It is very easy to do.
Mapa....cute. Still whining about Kammy's defeat?
You are principled. Most folks do not buy America & have much more variety in lower price, value and aesthetics. You buy only from American cartel & just like Americans have to buy from oil cartel.
Sadly Trump will lead to mid term shellacking & worse odds come 2028. Save for his border policies & rejection of DEI (things I applaud) trump’s policies are shadows of left.
Why do people think Nostradamus of Mapa (Trump, make America poor again) has special gnostic insight? Nostradamus of mapa just handed out big tariff exemptions to big tech around time he unleashes tariffs on our allies. Allies perceive capitulation as sign of weakness on Trump’s part. This weakens our negotiation position. Art of deal for ignoramuses. Btw - weaker dollar likely will increase interest rates, inflation.