Monday Morning Briefing

Top stories to watch this week

• So it's tariff week, with tariff "Liberation Day" coming on Wednesday. It is still less than clear whether Trump and his team really believe tariffs should become a permanent feature of America's fiscal system (Peter Navarro said tariffs could generate $6 trillion in revenue over the next decade, which is real money), or whether this is an exercise in trying to establish fair trade by getting some of our trade partners to lower their various trade barriers to American exports. Trump has, typically, spoken out both sides of his mouth about this.

The late Lloyd Cohen of George Mason Law School offered a useful perspective on this subject with an essay from way back in the 1980s:

There is a form of this fair trade versus free trade argument that has some merit. There may be a game theory reason for excluding some imports. If other governments are attempting to set an optimal tariff or are captives of protectionist special interests, we need a stick and carrot to make them eliminate their barriers. When use in the limited roles of a bargaining chip and a deterrent, such barriers may be useful.

Did you know that President Ronald Reagan, ardent free trader and the original instigator of what became NAFTA, threatened in 1986 a 200 percent tariff against Spain because of Spain's trade barriers against American grain exports? And this leaves aside also the "voluntary" import restraints on autos that Reagan forced on Japan for six years that economists estimated to have increased the cost of autos to American consumers by about $1,000—most of that gain captured by American automakers. Maybe Trump wasn't so crazy dumb to tell American auto companies not to raise their prices.

Chaser:

Trump Team Weighs Broader, Higher Tariffs

Back on the table ahead of Wednesday’s deadline: an across-the-board hike of up to 20%

In recent days Trump has pushed his team to be more aggressive, people familiar with the conversations said, encouraging them to devise plans that would apply higher rates of tariffs on a broader set of countries. Trump reinforced that narrative on Sunday night, saying he would target “essentially all” of U.S. trading partners with tariffs of some kind.

News item: Uncertainty has never been good for business investment and economic growth. Business investment picked up smartly after Trump won in November, but is slipping now. Goldman Sachs has raised its probability for a recession from 20 to 35%:

• Did you know that the Deep State exported to Europe the kind of lawfare it used in a vain attempt to stop Trump from becoming president again? I totally missed this story until the weekend:

France’s Political Order Braces for Shock if Le Pen Is Banned From Elections

PARIS—When judges reach a verdict in the embezzlement trial of Marine Le Pen on Monday, the fate of a politician with gravitational pull on France’s political system will be hanging in the balance.

Prosecutors are seeking a five-year prison sentence and a five-year ban from running for public office for Le Pen, a penalty that would exclude her from the next presidential race and thrust her party, National Rally, into limbo.

The question looming over France is whether the Paris tribunal—regardless of the underlying facts of the case against Le Pen—should deliver a ruling that shakes the country’s political order to its core.

“It’s my political death that’s being demanded,” Le Pen said in an interview on national TV, describing the proposed ban as “a very violent attack on democracy.”

Election interference you say? Democracy dies in darkness! No—it looks like democracy dies in the courtrooms of judges unaccountable to the people. Several professional organizations in Germany have banned their members from joining AfD, even though it is now running second in the polls, barely behind the supposedly "conservative" CDU that is limping to form a government with the socialists. And Romania has banned the leading candidate for that nation's presidency because of "Russian interference," which certainly sounds familiar.

Memo to France: If the political class does this, break out those yellow vests again and break stuff. (Note: The decision may be out by the time you read this.)

UPDATE: The verdict is in: Guilty. Le Pen is being sentenced to four years in prison, and declared ineligible to run for president next year:

PARIS—A French court convicted Marine Le Pen of misusing European Union funds, sentencing her to prison and banning her from France’s next presidential election in a ruling that shakes the country’s political landscape.

Judges handed down a sentence Monday that bars Le Pen from seeking public office for the next five years, upending France’s political order and thrusting her far-right party into limbo.

Here’s the deed that brought about this prosecution:

The court ruled that Le Pen and other members of her party illegally used 4.4 million euros, equivalent to $4.8 million, in EU funding that was earmarked for assistants helping lawmakers in the European Parliament with their work. Instead, judges said, Le Pen and her lawmakers used the money to pay party staffers who weren’t involved in work for the parliament.

I wonder how many members of the EU parliament have done exactly the same thing with EU funds? I’d wager it is a common practice.

• Did you know Trump took a major step last week toward destroying Federal employee unions? He did. Reverse the mainstream-media spin on this story and you’ll see what I mean:

Trump administration moves to end union rights for many federal workers

President Trump signed an executive order late Thursday limiting numerous agency employees from unionizing and instructing the government to stop engaging in any collective bargaining.

An accompanying fact sheet from the White House lays out the rationale for the move, claiming the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 allowing government workers to unionize “enables hostile Federal unions to obstruct agency management.”

“President Trump is taking action to ensure that agencies vital to national security can execute their missions without delay and protect the American people,” the fact sheet states.

The order targets agencies it says have a national security mission, but many of the departments don’t have a strict national security connection.

An Office of Personnel Management (OPM) memo directs agencies to terminate their collective bargaining agreement.

In addition to all agencies with the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Defense, the Department of State and the Department of Veterans Affairs, the order also covers the Treasury Department, all agencies within the Department of Health and Human Services, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Science Foundation, the General Services Administration and many more.

Go ahead and cue the lawsuits, lefties. I’m not tired of the winning, which comes from being on offense every day.

Where’s my one-inch violin? Oh, likely buried under my yuuuge bowl of popcorn.

• My latest Twitter/X provocation (IYKYK):

A reader asks: "Are these available on the East Coast?" Very funny. (Also, IYKYK.) My reply: "Available in select locations, but sometimes to you have to ask the checkout clerk as it may be hiding behind the counter. Totally unavailable in Toronto." (Again, IYKYK. YMMV.)

• Quote of the day from George Orwell, useful to have handy whenever you take in the mainstream media:

• Exit meme for Monday: